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2024 United Kingdom general election in Northern Ireland

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2024 United Kingdom general election
(Northern Ireland)
← 2019 4 July 2024 (2024-07-04)
All 18 Northern Ireland seats to the House of Commons
  First party Second party Third party
 
Official portrait of Gavin Robinson MP crop 2.jpg
President Joe Biden greets U.S. Special Envoy to Northern Ireland for Economic Affairs Joseph Kennedy III, Northern Ireland First Minister Michelle O’Neill and Deputy First Minister Emma Little-Pengelly on March 17, 2024 (cropped).jpg
Naomi_Long_MLA.jpg
Leader Gavin Robinson Michelle O'Neill[a] Naomi Long
Party DUP Sinn Féin Alliance
Leader since 29 March 2024 23 January 2017[c] 26 October 2016
Leader's seat Belfast East None[b] Standing in Belfast East[d]
Last election 30.6%, 8 MPs 22.8%, 7 MPs 16.8%, 1 MP
  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
 
Colum Eastwood SDLP Conference 2023.jpg
Doug Beattie.png
JimAllister (cropped).jpg
Leader Colum Eastwood Doug Beattie Jim Allister
Party SDLP UUP TUV
Alliance Reform UK–TUV
Leader since 14 November 2015 17 May 2021 7 December 2007
Leader's seat Foyle None[e] Standing in North Antrim[f]
Last election 14.9%, 2 MPs 11.7%, 0 MPs Didn't stand

The 2024 general election in Northern Ireland is scheduled to be held on 4 July 2024, with all 18 Northern Irish seats in the House of Commons to be contested. The general election will occur after the recently completed constituency boundaries review.

Background[edit]

Electoral system[edit]

MPs will be elected in 18 single-member constituencies by first-past-the-post.

Date of the election[edit]

On 22 May 2024, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced 4 July 2024 as the election date.[1]

Constituency boundaries[edit]

Map of the 18 constituencies to be used.

In June 2023, it was published that The Boundary Commission for Northern Ireland had made final recommendations for the new boundaries for Northern Ireland's 18 parliamentary constituencies. The report was submitted to the speaker of the UK House of Commons and the UK Government was required to submit a draft of an Order in Council to activate the new boundaries within four months.[2]

Changes include:

  • 'Belfast South' became 'Belfast South and Mid Down' and expanded to include parts of Lagan Valley and Strangford.
  • East Antrim now includes some areas that were previously in North Antrim.
  • The Foyle constituency has been reduced in size, with areas incorporated into the constituencies of West Tyrone and East Londonderry.[2]
  • Strangford has expanded to include large swathes of the eastern side of South Down.

Ten wards were moved and as approved by MPs, the new boundaries became effective on 1 November 2023.[3] These changes were approved at a meeting of the Privy Council on 15 November[4] and came into force on 29 November.[5]

Campaign[edit]

In the run up to the election, there has been speculation to the extent at which unionist electoral pacts will be active in some constituencies.[6] In July 2023, Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) leader Doug Beattie clarified that his party intends to stand candidates in 17 constituencies, but there is still speculation about whether the Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) will field candidates.[7] The TUV leader Jim Allister has said that in seats held by non-unionists where the sitting MP could potentially be ousted, it will support an “agreed single unionist candidate".[8]

In North Down, there have been calls for unionist parties to drop their own candidates and unite behind a single contender to defeat incumbent Alliance MP Stephen Farry.[9] Farry was confirmed as Alliance's candidate for North Down at the next election on 26 November 2023.[10] On 24 January 2024, the UUP selected former Iraq War veteran Tim Collins as their candidate for North Down, with the UUP leader Doug Beattie saying his party "does not do pacts".[11] Alex Easton is set to announce his Independent Unionist candidacy for the seat.[12]

In October 2023 the Alliance Party of Northern Ireland revealed that they intended to target Lagan Valley, seat of the then-leader of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) Jeffrey Donaldson. They unveiled their candidate as Sorcha Eastwood and will require a 7.16% swing to gain the seat from the DUP.[13]

Within nationalism, due to their strong performance in the 2022 Assembly election and the 2023 local elections, Sinn Féin look "likely to increase its number of seats at Westminster", with the possibility of gaining Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) leader Colum Eastwood's seat of Foyle.[14]

The campaign has got underway in South Belfast and North Down, with both incumbent MPs, Claire Hanna and Stephen Farry seeking re-election. North Down Ulster Unionist candidate Tim Collins has said he is "very confident" of unseating Farry.[15]

In January 2024, the Ulster Unionist Party selected their former leader and Minister of Health Robin Swann as their candidate for South Antrim[16] and announced their deputy leader, Robbie Butler, as the party's candidate for Lagan Valley.[17]

On 16 March 2024, the Traditional Unionist Voice formed an electoral pact with Reform UK, in which the two parties would stand mutually agreed candidates within Northern Ireland.[18] On 24 May they announced that they were supporting Alex Easton, the Independent Unionist candidate in North Down, and would not stand a candidate in that constituency.[19]

The leader of the Green Party Northern Ireland, Sen. Mal O'Hara, told Slugger O'Toole on 26 April 2024 that they will stand in every constituency and will not pursue any electoral pacts.[20]

On 7 May 2024, the UUP announced that 19 year-old Jay Basra, who is Punjabi-British, would be their candidate for Mid Ulster.[21] Following the announcement, Basra was the target of racial abuse on social media. The abuse was condemned by UUP leader Doug Beattie and former First Minister Arlene Foster, as well as deputy First Minister Emma Little-Pengelly.[22]

Candidates[edit]

Main article: Candidates in the 2024 United Kingdom general election

Candidates in bold were MPs at dissolution and represented a constituency in that parliamentary term which is succeeded at least partially by the constituency they're standing for election in at this election, in some cases not for the party they were aligned with when they were originally elected, and also includes those elected at by-elections in the preceding parliament. Italics denotes incumbent MPs not contesting the election.

The list of candidates standing in Northern Ireland was published by the Electoral Office on Friday 7 June:[23]

Constituency (2024–) Constituency (2010–24) Sinn Féin DUP Alliance UUP SDLP TUV Green Aontú Others Incumbent
Belfast East Gavin Robinson Naomi Long Ryan Warren Séamas de Faoite John Ross Brian Smyth Ryan North (Independent) DUP Gavin Robinson
Belfast North John Finucane Phillip Brett Nuala McAllister Carl Whyte David Clarke Mal O'Hara Fiona Ferguson (PBP) SF John Finucane
Belfast South and Mid Down Belfast South Tracy Kelly Kate Nicholl Michael Henderson Claire Hanna Dan Boucher Áine Groogan SDLP Claire Hanna
Belfast West Paul Maskey Frank McCoubrey Eóin Millar Ben Sharkey Paul Doherty Ann McClure Ash Jones Gerard Herdman Gerry Carroll (PBP)

Tony Mallon (Independent)

SF Paul Maskey
East Antrim Oliver McMullan Sammy Wilson Danny Donnelly John Stewart Margaret Anne McKillop Matthew Warwick Mark Bailey DUP Sammy Wilson
East Londonderry Kathleen McGurk Gregory Campbell Richard Stewart Glen Miller Cara Hunter Allister Kyle Jen McCahon Gemma Brolly Claire Scull (Conservative) DUP Gregory Campbell
Fermanagh and South Tyrone Pat Cullen Eddie Roofe Diana Armstrong Paul Blake Carl Duffy Gerry Cullen (CCLA) SF Michelle Gildernew
Foyle Sandra Duffy Gary Middleton Rachael Ferguson Janice Montgomery Colum Eastwood John Boyle Shaun Harkin (PBP)

Anne McCloskey (Independent)

SDLP Colum Eastwood
Lagan Valley Jonathan Buckley Sorcha Eastwood Robbie Butler Simon Lee Lorna Smyth Patricia Denvir Independent (elected as DUP) Jeffrey Donaldson
Mid Ulster Cathal Mallaghan Keith Buchanan Padraic Farrell Jay Basra Denise Johnston Glenn Moore Alixandra Halliday John Kelly (Independent) SF Francie Molloy
Newry and Armagh Dáire Hughes Gareth Wilson Helena Young Sam Nicholson Pete Byrne Keith Ratcliffe Liam Reichenberg Samantha Rayner (Conservative) SF Mickey Brady
North Antrim Philip McGuigan Ian Paisley Jr Sian Mulholland Jackson Minford Helen Maher Jim Allister Ráichéal Mhic Niocaill Tristan Morrow (Independent) DUP Ian Paisley Jr
North Down Stephen Farry Tim Collins Déirdre Vaughan Barry McKee Alex Easton (Independent)

Chris Carter (Independent)

APNI Stephen Farry
South Antrim Declan Kearney Paul Girvan John Blair Robin Swann Roisin Lynch Mel Lucas Lesley Veronica Siobhan McErlean DUP Paul Girvan
South Down Chris Hazzard Diane Forsythe Andrew McMurray Michael O'Loan Colin McGrath Jim Wells Declan Walsh Rosemary McGlone Hannah Westropp (Conservative) SF Chris Hazzard
Strangford Noel Sands Jim Shannon Michelle Guy Richard Smart Will Polland Ron McDowell Alexandra Braidner Gareth Burns (Independent)

Garreth Falls (Independent) Barry Hetherington (Conservative)

DUP Jim Shannon
Upper Bann Catherine Nelson Carla Lockhart Eóin Tennyson Kate Evans Malachy Quinn DUP Carla Lockhart
West Tyrone Órfhlaith Begley Tom Buchanan Stephen Donnelly Matthew Bell Daniel McCrossan Stevan Patterson Leza Houston Stephen Lynch (Conservative) SF Órfhlaith Begley

Opinion polling[edit]

This section is transcluded from Opinion polling for the 2024 United Kingdom general election. (edit | history)
Date(s)
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		DUP Sinn Féin Alliance SDLP UUP TUV Others Lead
10–13 May 2024 LucidTalk[24] Belfast Telegraph 3,316 20% 26% 15% 10% 13% 8%
8%
2% Aontú
1% People Before Profit
1% Greens
4% Independents and Others
 6
28 Jan – 11 Feb 2024 Social Market Research[25] Irish News–University of Liverpool 1,206 23.5% 31.1% 15.2% 8.1% 11.1% 4.8% – 6.6
26 Oct – 3 Nov 2023 Social Market Research[26] Institute of Irish Studies 1,074 25% 31% 15% 9% 11% 5% 5% 6
14 Jan – 7 Sep 2023 Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey[g] ARK 1,200 19% 24% 28% 9% 13% –
9%
Greens on 5%
Others on 4%
 4%
12 Dec 2019 2019 general election – 30.6% 22.8% 16.8% 14.9% 11.7% N/A 3.2% 7.8%

Leadership approval ratings[edit]

Michelle O'Neill

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Michelle O'Neill, the First Minister of Northern Ireland since 3 February 2024, Vice President of Sinn Féin since 10 February 2018 and Deputy First Minister of Northern Ireland from 11 January 2020 to 4 February 2022.

Date(s)
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample Size Good/Great Bad/Awful Don't know Net approval
11–14 Aug 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 2,950 43% 37% 20% +6%
21–24 Apr 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,957 41% 37% 22% +4%
20–23 Jan 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 1,449 41% 40% 19% +4%
4–7 Nov 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,351 46% 37% 17% +9%
12–15 Aug 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,384 40% 42% 18% –2%

Jeffrey Donaldson

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Jeffrey Donaldson, the leader of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) from 30 June 2021 to 29 March 2024.

Date(s)
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample Size Good/Great Bad/Awful Don't know Net approval
11–14 Aug 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 2,950 24% 66% 10% –42%
21–24 Apr 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,957 27% 65% 8% –38%
20–23 Jan 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 1,449 25% 63% 12% –38%
4–7 Nov 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,351 29% 65% 6% –36%
12–15 Aug 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,384 27% 64% 9% –37%

Naomi Long

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Naomi Long, the leader of the Alliance Party since 26 October 2016.

Date(s)
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample Size Good/Great Bad/Awful Don't know Net approval
11–14 Aug 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 2,950 38% 39% 23% –1%
21–24 Apr 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,957 40% 38% 22% +2%
20–23 Jan 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 1,449 37% 38% 25% –1%
4–7 Nov 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,351 45% 37% 18% +8%
12–15 Aug 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,384 46% 37% 17% +9%

Doug Beattie

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Doug Beattie, the leader of the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) since 27 May 2021.

Date(s)
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample Size Good/Great Bad/Awful Don't know Net approval
11–14 Aug 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 2,950 34% 38% 28% –4%
21–24 Apr 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,957 38% 33% 29% +5%
20–23 Jan 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 1,449 28% 42% 30% –14%
4–7 Nov 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,351 37% 32% 31% +5%
12–15 Aug 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,384 34% 34% 32% 0%

Colum Eastwood

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Colum Eastwood, the leader of the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) since 14 November 2015.

Date(s)
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample Size Good/Great Bad/Awful Don't know Net approval
11–14 Aug 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 2,950 26% 43% 31% –17%
21–24 Apr 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,957 32% 40% 28% –8%
20–23 Jan 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 1,449 33% 38% 29% –5%
4–7 Nov 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,351 31% 39% 30% –8%
12–15 Aug 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,384 34% 39% 27% –5%

Jim Allister

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Jim Allister, the leader of Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) since 7 December 2007.

Date(s)
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample Size Good/Great Bad/Awful Don't know Net approval
11–14 Aug 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 2,950 23% 63% 14% –40%
21–24 Apr 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,957 27% 61% 12% –34%
20–23 Jan 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 1,449 27% 57% 16% –30%
4–7 Nov 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,351 27% 59% 14% –32%
12–15 Aug 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,384 31% 54% 15% –23%

MPs not seeking re-election[edit]

Members of Parliament not standing for re-election
MP Seat First elected Party Date announced
Francie Molloy Mid Ulster 2013 Sinn Féin 13 February 2024[28]
Mickey Brady Newry and Armagh 2015 Sinn Féin 19 February 2024[29]
Jeffrey Donaldson Lagan Valley 1997 Independent[h] 22 May 2024[30]
Michelle Gildernew Fermanagh and South Tyrone 2001 Sinn Féin 23 May 2024[31]

See also[edit]

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ "Party leader in the North" and vice president of Sinn Féin. Mary Lou McDonald is the party president and leader of the opposition in the Dáil of the Republic of Ireland.
  2. ^ O'Neill is an MLA for Mid Ulster.
  3. ^ As "Party leader in the North"
  4. ^ Long serves as an MLA for Belfast East. She previously represented the area at Westminster from 2010-2015.
  5. ^ Beattie is an MLA for Upper Bann.
  6. ^ Allister is an MLA for North Antrim.
  7. ^ The question asked was "If there were a general election tomorrow, which political party do you think you would be most likely to support?".[27]
  8. ^ Elected as DUP.

References[edit]

  1. ^ "Rishi Sunak announces 4 July general election". BBC News. 22 May 2024. Retrieved 25 May 2024.
  2. ^ a b Hughes, Brendan (28 June 2023). "Belfast constituency to be renamed under election boundary changes". Belfast Live. Retrieved 5 November 2023.
  3. ^ "Boundaries of five Northern Ireland constituencies to change". BBC News. 28 June 2023. Retrieved 5 November 2023.
  4. ^ "List of Business - 15th November 2023" (PDF). Privy Council Office. 23 November 2023.
  5. ^ "The Parliamentary Constituencies Order 2023", legislation.gov.uk, The National Archives, 15 November 2023, SI 2023/1230
  6. ^ Michael Palmer (24 November 2023). "Unionist Pacts: Deal or No Deal?". Slugger O'Toole. Retrieved 24 November 2023.
  7. ^ David McCann (24 November 2023). "Slugger TV talks with Doug Beatte". Slugger O'Toole. Retrieved 24 November 2023.
  8. ^ "TUV says unionists must have anti-protocol candidates to vote for in next Westminster election". The Irish News. 12 January 2024. Retrieved 24 January 2024.
  9. ^ "North Down Orangemen call for rival unionist parties to drop their own candidates and agree on a single contender in a bid to oust Stephen Farry as MP". Newsletter. 6 October 2023. Retrieved 11 April 2024.
  10. ^ "Alliance select Stephen Farry to stand for re-election in North Down | Northern Ireland Elects". nielects.com. 26 November 2023. Retrieved 27 November 2023.
  11. ^ "UUP: Iraq veteran Col Tim Collins to run in North Down". BBC News. 24 January 2024. Retrieved 24 January 2024.
  12. ^ newspapers, spectator (25 April 2024). "Easton to Stand". County Down Spectator. Retrieved 26 April 2024.
  13. ^ "Alliance: We can take Jeffrey Donaldson's Lagan Valley seat". Belfast Telegraph. 21 October 2023. ISSN 0307-1235. Retrieved 26 May 2024.
  14. ^ "Sinn Fein 'on course to hit new general election high': new poll". Belfast Telegraph. 13 November 2023. ISSN 0307-1235. Retrieved 24 November 2023.
  15. ^ "Iraq War veteran standing for UUP as he sets sights on Stephen Farry's Westminster seat". Belfast Telegraph. 24 January 2024. ISSN 0307-1235. Retrieved 24 January 2024.
  16. ^ "Robin Swann lined up for South Antrim election bid". 26 January 2024. Retrieved 26 January 2024.
  17. ^ "NI relations with Westminster have never been worse, claims UUP deputy as he confirms election bid". Belfast Telegraph. 27 January 2024. ISSN 0307-1235. Retrieved 27 January 2024.
  18. ^ "TUV conference: Jim Allister announces partnership with Reform UK". BBC News. 16 March 2024. Retrieved 16 March 2024.
  19. ^ "TUV and Reform UK to support Alex Easton in North Down". Belfast Telegraph. 24 May 2024.
  20. ^ NVTV, Northern Visions (25 April 2024). Slugger TV - 26th April 2024. Retrieved 26 April 2024 – via Vimeo.
  21. ^ "Ulster Unionists select Jay Basra as Westminster candidate for Mid Ulster - Northern Ireland Elects". nielects.com. 7 May 2024. Retrieved 13 May 2024.
  22. ^ "UUP leader Doug Beattie condemns social media 'abuse' aimed at Mid Ulster election candidate". BelfastTelegraph.co.uk. 13 May 2024. ISSN 0307-1235. Retrieved 14 May 2024.
  23. ^ "Statement of Persons Nominated and Notice of Poll". Electoral Office for Northern Ireland. 7 June 2024. Retrieved 7 June 2024.
  24. ^ "Latest poll suggests DUP support down by a third since 2019". Belfast Telegraph. 25 May 2024. Retrieved 25 May 2024.
  25. ^ Manley, John (11 March 2024). "Sinn Féin on course for record performance in Westminster election". The Irish News. Archived from the original on 13 March 2024. Retrieved 14 March 2023.
  26. ^ Manley, John (13 November 2023). "Sinn Féin on course to break Westminster record". The Irish News. Archived from the original on 13 November 2023. Retrieved 13 November 2023.
  27. ^ "Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey 2023 Questionnaire CAWI (online)" (PDF). ARK - Access Research Knowledge. p. 58. Archived (PDF) from the original on 8 June 2024. Retrieved 16 May 2024.
  28. ^ "Sinn Féin MP Francie Molloy not seeking re-election". BBC News. 13 February 2024. Retrieved 16 February 2024.
  29. ^ "Sinn Féin MP Mickey Brady not seeking re-election". BBC News. 19 February 2024. Retrieved 20 February 2024.
  30. ^ "Donaldson solicitor confirms MP will not contest election". BBC News. 22 May 2024. Retrieved 22 May 2024.
  31. ^ "Representing the people of Midlands-North-West my sole focus – Gildernew".
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